baccaratinc|突发！“利好+”再度来袭 一波行情是否开启？

The market is very good!

In early trading today, most of Hong Kong's inner housing stocks strengthened, and automobile stocks rose sharply. As we all know, real estate and cars are the two major drivers of the economy. It is obvious that the current market has great expectations for these two driving forces. Once these two driving forces are started, the economic vitality will be significantly increased, which in turn will lead to consumption.

From the perspective of the path of market interpretation, after the sharp rise in real estate and cars, consumption, games and other sectors also followed. At the same time, the RMB exchange rate has also risen sharply. It has risen 800 points in the past seven trading days.

And just now, there is a great benefit from real estate. On May 3, Shanghai Real Estate Industry Association and Shanghai Real Estate Brokerage Industry Association actively responded to the Fifth Shanghai "May five Shopping Festival" and jointly proposed to launch a commercial housing "trade-in" campaign in Shanghai.

So, in this context, whether a wave of market starts or notBaccaratinc?

The pattern of two wings flying together

Following Thursday's rally, Hong Kong stocks rose again at the beginning of trading on Friday (May 3), with the Hang Seng Index up more than 2% and the Hang Seng Technology Index up more than 4%. From the perspective of the rising structure, real estate and cars fly together, reflecting the market's expectations for the economy.

In early trading today, Hong Kong's inner housing stocks soared collectively, and Xuhui Holdings Group (00884)BaccaratincAt one point, HK) soared by 6.58%, with China's urban infrastructure, easy-to-live enterprise holding, leading service, shell and so on catching up.

In early trading, auto stocks also exploded. At one point, 09868.HK (Xiaopeng) rose by more than 9%, 02015.HK (ideal) by more than 6%, 09863.HK (09863.HK), GAC GROUP (02238.HK) and 00175.HK (Geely) by more than 3%, and BYD (01211.HK) and 09866.HK (09866.HK) by more than 2%. Subsequently, they all fell back, but still remained strong.

After the Hong Kong stock market closed sharply higher on Thursday, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed more than 6% on Thursday, setting a new closing high since the end of November last year. XPEV.US and bilibili soared more than 15%, seashells soared more than 12%, Jin Shanyun and JD.com (JD.US) soared more than 11%, high-way and ideal Motor (LI.US) jumped more than 10%, and Weibo (WB.US) rose more than 8%. Baidu (BIDU.US) and TAL.US (good future) rose more than 7 per cent, while NIO.US and Alibaba (BABA.US) rose more than 6 per cent.

While Hong Kong stocks and US-listed stocks rose, the RMB exchange rate also rose sharply. In the last seven trading days, the RMB exchange rate has surpassed 800 points, and today it has broken through the two important barriers of 7.2 and 7.19. The performance of the A50 is also stronger.

A great deal of good news came again.

When real estate picks up, the economy picks up; real estate is expected to pick up, and the economy is expected to pick up. Today, there is another big boost in real estate.

On May 3, Shanghai Real Estate Industry Association and Shanghai Real Estate Brokerage Industry Association actively responded to the Fifth Shanghai "May five Shopping Festival" and jointly proposed to launch a commercial housing "trade-in" campaign in Shanghai. The campaign aims to facilitate the replacement of housing by residents through the "trade-in" model, and better support the reasonable gradient home purchase needs of residents.

This "trade-in" activity is mainly aimed at home buyers who plan to sell second-hand homes and buy new ones. Home buyers first reach the intention of buying new houses with real estate development enterprises, and then the real estate brokerage agencies give priority to promoting their old housing transactions, and complete the new housing transactions according to the agreement after the old houses are sold successfully. The first batch of more than 20 real estate development enterprises and nearly 10 real estate brokers participated in the initiative. The first batch of more than 30 projects participated in the initiative, mainly distributed in Jiading, Songjiang, Qingpu, Fengxian, Lingang and other regions. The real estate development enterprises that participated in the "trade-in" activities promised that within a certain period of time, if the old houses were not sold successfully, the buyers could "return the house and refund" without conditions; the real estate brokers promised to "push the old houses of the house buyers throughout the city and give priority to the sale". During the event, the Shanghai Real Estate Industry Association recommended that real estate development enterprises increase the intensity of concessions to provide corresponding concessions for "trade-in" residents; the Shanghai Real Estate Brokerage Industry Association proposed real estate brokerage agencies to provide exclusive preferential services for "trade-in" residents.

At the same time, in order to provide more choices and protection for home buyers, the relevant platform (Leju good Housing) provides professional services for all parties in this "trade-in" activity, including providing convenient services such as temporary trusteeship for residents who intend to buy new houses, and big data services for development enterprises and brokers. This "trade-in" activity is to further expand the scope of participation, increase service items, standardize service process and improve service efficiency on the basis of the existing measures of some real estate development enterprises and brokers. Shanghai Real Estate Industry Association and Shanghai Real Estate Brokerage Industry Association hope that more development enterprises and brokerage agencies will participate and jointly provide better services for "trade-in" residents.

Shanghai's real estate policy is more signalling. Moreover, the initiative took place after a blockbuster meeting at the end of April. In this blockbuster meeting, the expression for real estate is to emphasize "compacting the responsibilities of local governments, real estate enterprises and financial institutions." At the same time, "overall research on policies and measures to digest stock real estate and optimize incremental housing", focusing on real estate destocking, increased attention to the high-quality development of real estate. In terms of local government debt risk resolution, this meeting proposed for high-risk provinces and cities and counties to "not only truly reduce debt, but also achieve stable development." So, how to get to inventory? First, it has been reported that the collection and deposit of state assets; second, to relax various purchase restrictions.

Or in the long run.

It is good in the short term, but in terms of the strength and volume of the market, it may be intended for the long term.

　　首先，“耐心资本”在一定程度上就意味着长远。4月底的政治局会议强调“要积极发展风险投资，壮大耐心资本”，“要持续推动中小金融机构改革化险，多措并举促进资本市场健康发展”。中泰证券认为，耐心资本指的是以中长期的投资为主，坚持价值投资与责任投资，不以短期交易获利为目的的资本。一级市场中，“耐心资本”多指中长期投资的私募股权基金。对于二级市场来说，养老金、保险资金、产业资本等长线资金均为“耐心资本”，是资本市场的“压舱石”。

　　其次，市场对于推动生产关系和生产力相适应有着较高的期待。政治局会议提出，以经济体制改革为牵引，以促进社会公平正义、增进人民福祉为出发点和落脚点，更加注重系统集成，更加注重突出重点，更加注重改革实效，推动生产关系和生产力、上层建筑和经济基础、国家治理和社会发展更好相适应，为中国式现代化提供强大动力和制度保障。

　　第三，一轮新的周期可能正在到来。过去几年，外围发达国家经济表现较为突出，但随着美国货币政策持续收紧，当下它们的经济亦出现了一些问题。在这种背景之下，中国经济却出现了明显的复苏。而且，在美联储降息预期尚不明朗的背景之下，政治局会议提出，要灵活运用利率和存款准备金率等政策工具，加大对实体经济支持力度，降低社会综合融资成本。财政上，还要及早发行并用好超长期特别国债，加快专项债发行使用进度，保持必要的财政支出强度。可以说，未来一段时间的流动性应该会比较好。这无疑会给中国经济创造不错的发展条件。

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