60millionpowerball|如何看待近期港股快速上行？

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Zhitong Finance and Economics Network

Core conclusion

Hong Kong stocks have taken the lead in the world's major stock indices since the end of January. The Hong Kong stock market has performed strongly since January 23. As of April 30, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index have risen 25% respectively.60millionpowerball.4% and 21.9%, entering a technical bull market, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Composite Index also rose 18.7% and 18.6% respectively, taking the lead among the world's major stock markets. The recent strong performance of Hong Kong stocks has become the focus of the current market.

Liquidity has always been an important factor affecting the performance of the Hong Kong stock market. The inflow of southward capital into the Hong Kong stock market has accelerated significantly since the end of January this year, which is an important reason why the Hong Kong stock market began to strengthen in the same period. Investors should be very impressed by the southward capital inflow of more than HK $300 billion in January in early 2021, the highest light moment since the data were available. However, after that, the rate of capital inflows to the south continued to slow in the second half of 2021, 2022 and 2023, and the Hong Kong stock market also continued to pull back since the beginning of 2021. However, the net inflow of southward capital into the Hong Kong stock market has accelerated significantly this year, with cumulative inflows reaching 213.5 billion Hong Kong dollars in the first four months, much higher than the same period data in 2022 and 2023, which is also an important reason for the recent strength of the Hong Kong stock market.

Since the beginning of the year, the policy of optimizing the cross-border connectivity mechanism and promoting the coordinated development of the capital markets of the two places has been falling continuously, further catalysing the short-term rapid upward trend of the Hong Kong stock market. On March 13, the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission met with the visiting Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission, and the two sides agreed to continue to strengthen practical cooperation in the capital markets and cross-border regulatory and law enforcement cooperation between the two places, so as to jointly promote complementary and coordinated development of the two markets. On April 12, the State Council issued some opinions on strengthening supervision and preventing risks to promote the high-quality development of the capital market, making arrangements such as adhering to the high-level institutional opening and security of the overall capital market, expanding and optimizing the cross-border interconnection mechanism of the capital market. On April 19, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued five capital market cooperation measures to further expand and optimize the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism, help Hong Kong consolidate and enhance its status as an international financial center, and jointly promote the coordinated development of the capital markets of the two places.

In fact, not only the Hong Kong stock market, but also Chinese assets, including A shares and China's Taiwan market, have performed well recently.60millionpowerballWe believe that the continued improvement of China's fundamentals is the core driving factor behind it. On April 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics released first-quarter economic data that real GDP in the first quarter grew 5.3% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points faster than in both 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2023. On April 30th, the latest manufacturing PMI index released by the Bureau of Statistics for April was 50.4%, which was in the expansion range for two consecutive months. Overall, China's economy is currently in a moderate recovery stage, in the future, with the continuous repair of economic endogenous momentum, we expect the follow-up trend to continue to pick up for the better.

Risk hints: first, geopolitical risks; second, macroeconomic is not as expected; third, historical experience is for reference only; fourth, large fluctuations in overseas markets.

Report body

Since the end of January, Hong Kong stocks have taken a strong lead in the world's major stock indexes.

Hong Kong stocks have taken the lead in the world's major stock indices since the end of January. Since January 23, the Hong Kong stock market has performed strongly. As of April 30, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index have risen 25.4% and 21.9% respectively, entering a technical bull market. The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Composite Index also rose 18.7% and 18.6% respectively, taking the lead among the world's major stock markets. The recent strong performance of Hong Kong stocks has become the focus of the current market.

(2) the net inflow of southward capital into the Hong Kong stock market has accelerated significantly in the past few years.

Liquidity has always been an important factor affecting the performance of the Hong Kong stock market. The inflow of southward capital into the Hong Kong stock market has accelerated significantly since the end of January this year, which is an important reason why the Hong Kong stock market began to strengthen in the same period. Investors should be very impressed by the southward capital inflow of more than HK $300 billion in January in early 2021, the highest light moment since the data were available. However, after that, the rate of capital inflows to the south continued to slow in the second half of 2021, 2022 and 2023, and the Hong Kong stock market also continued to pull back since the beginning of 2021. However, the net inflow of southward capital into the Hong Kong stock market has accelerated significantly this year, with cumulative inflows reaching 213.5 billion Hong Kong dollars in the first four months, much higher than the same period data in 2022 and 2023, which is also an important reason for the recent strength of the Hong Kong stock market.

(3) the policy is good continuously, which catalyzes the short-term and rapid upward trend of the market.

Since the beginning of the year, the policy of optimizing the cross-border connectivity mechanism and promoting the coordinated development of the capital markets of the two places has been falling continuously, catalysing the short-term rapid upward trend of the Hong Kong stock market.

On March 13, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission met with the visiting chairman and chief executive of the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission, and both sides agreed that it is of great significance to consolidate and enhance Hong Kong's status as an international financial centre. they agreed to continue to strengthen practical cooperation in the capital markets and cross-border regulatory and law enforcement cooperation between the two places, so as to jointly promote complementary and coordinated development of the two markets.

On April 12, the State Council issued some opinions on strengthening supervision and preventing risks to promote the high-quality development of the capital market, making arrangements such as adhering to the high-level institutional opening and security of the overall capital market, expanding and optimizing the cross-border interconnection mechanism of the capital market.

On April 19th, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued five capital market cooperation measures to further expand and optimize the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism, help Hong Kong consolidate and enhance its position as an international financial center, and jointly promote the coordinated development of the capital markets of the two places: (1) relax the range of eligible products of stock ETF under the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. (2) incorporate REITs into the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. (3) to support the inclusion of RMB stock trading counters in Hong Kong Stock Connect. (4) optimize the mutual recognition arrangement of the fund. (5) to support leading enterprises in mainland industries to list in Hong Kong.

(4) the continuous improvement of fundamentals is the core factor of China's asset dominance.

　　实际上不仅仅港股市场，近期包括A股、中国台湾市场在内的中国资产均有不错表现，我们认为我国基本面持续向好是背后的核心驱动因素。4月16日，国家统计局发布一季度经济数据，一季度实际GDP同比增长5.3%，增速较2023年和2023年四季度均加快0.1个百分点。4月30日，统计局公布的最新4月份制造业PMI指数为50.4%，连续两个月位于扩张区间。总体来看，当前我国经济正处于温和复苏阶段，往后看，随着经济内生动能的不断修复，我们预计后续将会延续回升向好的趋势。

　　5 风险提示

　　一是地缘政治风险；二是宏观经济不及预期；三是历史经验仅供参考；四是海外市场大幅波动等。

　　本文转载自“ 华福研究宏观”微信公众号；智通财经编辑：李佛。

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