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简介 本报记者 韩 昱 黄金价格上涨的步伐仍没有停歇。从国际黄金现货价格看,Wind数据显示,4月9日,伦敦金现报收2352slotocashcasinonodepositbonus.72美元/盎司,
本报记者 韩 昱
黄金价格上涨的步伐仍没有停歇。从国际黄金现货价格看,Wind数据显示,4月9日,伦敦金现报收2352slotocashcasinonodepositbonus.72美元/盎司,盘中最高探至2365slotocashcasinonodepositbonus.30美元/盎司,再次刷新几天前刚刚创下的历史纪录。截至4月9日收盘,4月份以来的7个交易日内,有6个交易日黄金价格均收涨。4月10日,这种势头仍在延续,截至记者发稿时,伦敦金现价格在2355美元/盎司左右波动。
在金价“狂飙”之际,不少研究机构更新了对后续走势的展望,大部分认为金价或仍有上行空间。比如,近日瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)发表机构观点,将今年底的金价预测从此前的2250美元/盎司上调至2500美元/盎司。
领秀财经首席分析师刘思源在接受《证券日报》记者采访时也预测,全球央行持续购入现货黄金支撑金价,结合美联储6月份降息的预期,6月份前后黄金可能尝试冲击2400美元/盎司关口。
不过,近期部分数据以及资产表现也让市场开始思考,金价的涨势是否将面临拐点。比如,4月9日,世界黄金协会公布数据显示,今年3月份,全球黄金ETF资金连续第10个月继续流出,减少8.23亿美元。
再比如,4月9日,华夏中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF(以下简称“华夏黄金股ETF”)在停牌一小时后开盘再度跌停,连续两日经历跌停。4月10日,华夏黄金股ETF继续低开,当日小幅收跌1.75%。
巨丰投顾高级投资顾问罗啼明在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,黄金ETF资金流出和黄金股ETF价格跌停可能反映了市场上一部分投资者对当前金价水平的担忧,以及对未来金价走势的不确定感。资金流出和价格跌停或是市场对金价短期内可能过热的一种调整,但并不一定意味着金价立即面临拐点。
slotocashcasinonodepositbonus他认为,本轮黄金不断创新高的根本原因是全球“去美元化”趋势。在美元超发泛滥等背景下,投资者对美元信用的信任度降低,多元化配置的需求上升。由于美国总需求下降、通胀压力缓解、劳动力市场边际转弱,美联储货币政策压力有所减轻,加息已经暂停,叠加缩表步伐有望放缓,黄金面临的经济、政策环境好转。同时,国际地缘冲突仍然紧张,刺激黄金的避险需求。双重支撑下,黄金价格近期保持强劲上涨趋势,且涨幅较大。未来一段时间,支持黄金的双重因素突然发生重大变化的概率很小,预计国际黄金价格可维持在2075美元/盎司以上高位运行较长时间。虽然金价有可能回落至2075美元/盎司附近,但中长期金价的目标可能在2550美元/盎司。
瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)发表的机构观点预计,黄金ETF的持有量未来或随着美联储年中启动降息而增加,因买盘往往与利率调整联动。短期内,如果美国经济数据引发市场对于美联储推迟降息的预期,那么金价可能存在回调风险。
刘思源认为,今年下半年,黄金面临技术性修正和盈利盘退场,未来长期价格面临回调。
那么,现在到了“获利了结”的时刻吗slotocashcasinonodepositbonus?刘思源建议,黄金价格技术上的背离累积的就是风险,透支后面临在6月份前后出现拐点,尤其是持有黄金已经盈利的投资人需要注意“落袋为安”。
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